Predicted vs. Live Audiences

In this article

We cover the key differences between live and predicted audience in addition to some helpful tips on understanding exceptions.

Predicted Audience Size

This number is an estimate of how many users during the last 30 days have satisfied your segment criteria. This number should be used before the segment is live to predict the segment size, and for 30 days after a segment has been set live. It should also be used for time-restricted segments, where the time restriction is < 30 days.

Live Audience Size

This is the number of users in this segment who have been active on your page within the last 30 days. This number should be used for non-time-restricted segments after 30 or more days since a segment has been created, as well as for long-running segments with no time constraints.

Exceptions: 

Tip: Use the Predicted Audience Size Estimator for these exceptions to get a better idea of your audience sizes.
Your segment has been live for less than 30 days
The Live Audience Size only begins counting users once a segment is set live, whereas the Predicted Audience Size looks back in history on a user's behaviour even if a segment doesn't exist yet. Due to this difference, if a segment has been live for under 30 days, the Predicted Audience Size will be larger, as the Live Audience Size hasn't fully populated yet.

 

Your segment has a time constraint that is less than 30 days
For example, if your segment includes a time constraint like "within the last 7 days", this will be reflected in the Predicted Audience Size Estimator but not in the Live Audience Size. Due to this, the Live Audience Size will show you the number of users who have been in the segment over the last 30 days, and the Predicted Audience Size Estimator will show you the users who have fallen into the segment in the last 7 days. The Live Audience Size can be significantly larger in this case.
You have a long-running segment with no time constraints
For example, if your segment is "users who have read a football article" with no time restrictions, the Predicted Audience Size will return the number of users who have read a football article in the last 30 days.

The Live Audience size will return the number of users who have ever read a football article and were active on your site in the last 30 days.

You have changed the definition of your segment recently
If you have recently changed the definition of your segment, this change will be reflected in the Predicted Audience Size, but not in the Live Audience Size.

Live Audience size will include the users who have fallen into the segment under your previous segment definition.

If you have any questions, please contact customer support by email support@permutive.com or chat with the Customer Operations Team via the LiveChat icon in the bottom right corner of your screen.

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